Has The Market Passed Its Most Significant Period Of Decline?
Research could suggest that the property market has already hit its lowest levels in recent weeks. After six weeks of strain, could the market be transitioning into a steady upward trajectory?
According to data from Twenty7Tec, the property market experienced daily, weekly and fortnightly increases on both search activity and the volume of mortgage documents up to April 25.
The weekly figures for the volume of searches had increased by 15.14 per cent, 13.94 per cent on a weekly and fortnightly basis respectively. Although the daily figures had decreased by 3.26 per cent when compared with last week, there was a 44.29 per cent improvement on the daily figures from two weeks ago.
Whilst the volume of documents was down 42.14 per cent on the levels last seen a month ago, the weekly totals were up by a fifth (19 per cent) and 12.91 per cent on two weeks ago.
Similarly, on a daily basis, the number of documents prepared had increased by 44.94 per cent when compared with two weeks ago and 7.69 per cent on last week.
Whilst the figures over the course of a month indicate that the market has contracted considerably, the rise in activity over the past two weeks could indicate that the property market has weathered its most significant period of decline and is set to experience modest increases until the government relaxes social distancing restrictions.
James Tucker, CEO of mortgage technology provider Twenty7Tec says:
“Thankfully, there are some good news stories in this week’s figures. Whilst the volumes are considerably lower than the high times of late February, it is possible that we are now starting to see the ‘end of the beginning’.
“Weekly search volumes for all types of mortgages, the total number of ESIS documents prepared, and the values of mortgages requested, are up compared to the same period a week ago; and, again, to the same period two weeks ago.
“The total volume of mortgage searches also seems unaffected by the announcement that lockdown will need to be in place for a further three weeks at least.
“Buy-to-let mortgage searches continue to represent an ever-larger proportion of the market – they currently constitute 24.37% of all searches, well above their long-term average of 19.78%.
“We saw a slight uptick in weekly remortgage searches also. These are up 1.03% on the prior week. However, the volume of remortgage searches is still down a quarter compared to four weeks ago.
“The pipeline of housing available for purchase will likely have been helped by the news from some major housebuilders that many of their sites will re-open this week.
“When I speak to brokers, it’s clear how hard they are working for their clients and trying to keep the market flowing as much as possible. We can but hope these green shoots of good news which have, seemingly, begun to sprout over the past two weeks will give brokers something to build on.”